LME Low Inventory Support vs Weak Domestic Demand SHFE Tin Repeatedly Contested at 270,000 Yuan Level [SMM Tin Noon Review]

During today's midday session, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 273,120 yuan/mt, up 1.26% from the previous day, with intraday fluctuations ranging between 269,030 and 273,570 yuan/mt. Despite briefly breaking through the 270,000 yuan mark during the night session, daytime trading showed signs of weakness, with trading volume pulling back MoM, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Meanwhile, the LME tin contract edged up to $34,355/mt, a 0.66% increase, supported by low overseas inventory.

The Trump administration's recent policy of imposing a 100% tariff on semiconductors has disrupted the global electronics industry chain, compounded by escalating trade tensions between the US and India, leading to an increase in risk aversion. However, Fed Chairman Powell's dovish signals at the global central bank conference have boosted expectations for a September interest rate cut, causing the US dollar index to pull back and providing temporary support for metal prices. Domestically, after the cooling of "rat race" competition policies, fiscal spending continues to be robust, but there is still pressure from a marginal economic slowdown, and it will take time for policy measures to translate into real demand.

In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to maintain a sideways movement within the 265,000-275,000 yuan/mt range. If the clearance volume of Myanmar ore increases or downstream restocking falls short of expectations, prices may test the 268,000 yuan support level; conversely, if peak season stockpiling starts early and overseas interest rate cuts materialize, prices could challenge the 275,000 yuan resistance level. Investors are advised to monitor LME inventory changes and US non-farm payrolls data for guidance.